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NAIOP Tampa Bay  2010 Broker Update Welcome NAIOP Chairman, Larry Pobuda
Thank you to our  Silver Sponsors
Thank you to our  Bronze Sponsors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you to our  Bronze Sponsors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Land ,[object Object],[object Object]
Land ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Short Sweet Version ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Little or No Demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Back to The Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s Hot ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Industrial ,[object Object],[object Object]
Mike Davis Executive Director Cushman & Wakefield of Florida Inc. Investment Sales & Industrial Brokerage
National Industrial Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mid-Year 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
National Industrial Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mid-Year 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
National Industrial Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mid-Year 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Warehouse/Distribution Industrial Cycle Market  Equilibrium Accelerating Slow Growth Weakening Recovering Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Contra Costa, Dallas, Hartford, Houston, Jacksonville, LA- Central, LA- North, LA- South, Long Island, Minneapolis, New Jersey- Central and Northern, Northern Virginia, Oakland, Orange County, Orlando, Portland, SF Peninsula ,  Silicon Valley, St. Petersburg/Clearwater, Suburban Maryland, Tampa Denver, Ft. Lauderdale, Inland Empire, Lakeland, Miami, PA I-81/I-78 Corridor, Palm Beach, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Florida Statewide Industrial Overall Absorption 2003 – YTD 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Florida Statewide Industrial Sales Activity 2003 - YTD 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Central Florida Industrial Average Rents & Vacancy 2003 - YTD 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Florida Industrial Investment Sales ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Investments ,[object Object],[object Object]
Total Transactions (000s) U.S. Sales $1 million and above Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics 1H 2010  Annualized Total Dollar Volume (Bil.) Total Dollar Volume Total Transactions 1H 2010  Annualized Commercial Real Estate Sales Trends Tampa-St. Petersburg
Distress Scaled to Activity Distress Volume (billions) Scaled Distress as % of Market* * Distress volume as of July 21, 2010 as a % of total sales volume 2005-2008 Includes apartment, office, retail, industrial, and hotel properties (excluding casinos) Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
Tampa Cap Rate Trends Includes Sales $1M+ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc. Average Cap Rate
Retail (Landlord) ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
The National Retail Perspective  NOT GOOD! The State Retail Perspective The Tampa Bay Retail Perspective Even Worse! Don’t Ask!
THE U.S. RETAIL SUMMARY
 
 
 
WHY TENANTS ARE NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
 
 
THE TAMPA BAY RETAIL SUMMARY   Healthiest retail submarkets: Northeast and Northwest Tampa $14.50 SF 318,543 (512,190) 16,351,000 (7.8%) 210,956,000 Quoted Rental Rates Under Construction YTD Net  Absorption Vacancy Total SF Existing Inventory Total GLA
TRENDS     Tight lending will keep a check on speculative development   An oversupply of retail space will slow speculative development   Note sales of distressed properties by commercial banks
LANDLORD MOVES TO SURVIVE   Managing bank relationships and capital issues Managing co-tenancy issues  Leasing as much space as possible – Co-tenancy!
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Realpoint WHAT WE NEED TO RECOVER IN RETAIL Jobs Jobs increase consumer confidence A confident consumer buys retail stuff
Retail (Tenant) ,[object Object],[object Object]
RETAILER OVERVIEW David Conn CB Richard Ellis
When Does Recovery Turn Into Expansion? Source: CBRE EA Summer 2010 Outlook Sum of 55 Retail Markets RECOVERY EXPANSION
No Rent Expansion Until 2016 Sources: CBRE Econometric Advisors
United States | Retail | Market Trends: Forecast Baseline Fall 2010 Outlook data as of 2Q-2010 Rent Expansion 2019
US Retail Store Openings (Closures 2008-2010)
July 2010 Comparable Stores Sales Report
Tampa Bay Big Box Deals FAMILY DOLLAR DOLLAR GENERAL DOLLAR TREE hh gregg ALDI
Office (Tenant) ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
Availability Rates  Major Market Comparison September 2010 Office Market: Tenant Representation Perspective Tampa Bay Tampa Bay ,[object Object],[object Object]
Rental Rates  (2Q 2009 vs. 2Q 2010) Major Market Comparison September 2010 Office Market: Tenant Representation Perspective Tampa Bay Tampa Bay ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Office Employment  (Losses vs. Gains) Major Market Comparison September 2010 Office Market: Tenant Representation Perspective Tampa Bay ,[object Object],[object Object]
Emerging Confidence  Is Tampa Bay on the Rebound? September 2010 Office Market: Tenant Representation Perspective ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Advising Our Clients Securing the Tenant’s Interest September 2010 Office Market: Tenant Representation Perspective ,[object Object],[object Object]
Today’s View Balancing Concerns & Concessions September 2010 Office Market: Tenant Representation Perspective ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Office (Landlord) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Kyle Burd Principal|Regional Vice President Eola Capital NAIOP Presentation September 8, 2010
Tampa Office Vacancy 21.4%
Westshore Availabilities SF Spaces Bldgs. 0-5K  512 146 5-10K 201 78 10-20K 117 54 20-50K  65 25 50-100K 22 5
[object Object],[object Object]
Making Deals – What Doesn’t Work? Over Selling
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you to our  Silver Sponsors
Thank you to our  Bronze Sponsors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you to our  Bronze Sponsors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Broker Update Committee ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Amendment 4
Broker Update Date PowerPoint ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Naiop tampa bay 2010 broker update final cut

  • 1. NAIOP Tampa Bay 2010 Broker Update Welcome NAIOP Chairman, Larry Pobuda
  • 2. Thank you to our Silver Sponsors
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Mike Davis Executive Director Cushman & Wakefield of Florida Inc. Investment Sales & Industrial Brokerage
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Warehouse/Distribution Industrial Cycle Market Equilibrium Accelerating Slow Growth Weakening Recovering Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Contra Costa, Dallas, Hartford, Houston, Jacksonville, LA- Central, LA- North, LA- South, Long Island, Minneapolis, New Jersey- Central and Northern, Northern Virginia, Oakland, Orange County, Orlando, Portland, SF Peninsula , Silicon Valley, St. Petersburg/Clearwater, Suburban Maryland, Tampa Denver, Ft. Lauderdale, Inland Empire, Lakeland, Miami, PA I-81/I-78 Corridor, Palm Beach, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
  • 17. Florida Statewide Industrial Overall Absorption 2003 – YTD 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
  • 18. Florida Statewide Industrial Sales Activity 2003 - YTD 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
  • 19. Central Florida Industrial Average Rents & Vacancy 2003 - YTD 2010 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Total Transactions (000s) U.S. Sales $1 million and above Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics 1H 2010 Annualized Total Dollar Volume (Bil.) Total Dollar Volume Total Transactions 1H 2010 Annualized Commercial Real Estate Sales Trends Tampa-St. Petersburg
  • 23. Distress Scaled to Activity Distress Volume (billions) Scaled Distress as % of Market* * Distress volume as of July 21, 2010 as a % of total sales volume 2005-2008 Includes apartment, office, retail, industrial, and hotel properties (excluding casinos) Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
  • 24. Tampa Cap Rate Trends Includes Sales $1M+ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc. Average Cap Rate
  • 25.
  • 26.  
  • 27. The National Retail Perspective NOT GOOD! The State Retail Perspective The Tampa Bay Retail Perspective Even Worse! Don’t Ask!
  • 28. THE U.S. RETAIL SUMMARY
  • 29.  
  • 30.  
  • 31.  
  • 32. WHY TENANTS ARE NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
  • 33.  
  • 34.  
  • 35. THE TAMPA BAY RETAIL SUMMARY Healthiest retail submarkets: Northeast and Northwest Tampa $14.50 SF 318,543 (512,190) 16,351,000 (7.8%) 210,956,000 Quoted Rental Rates Under Construction YTD Net Absorption Vacancy Total SF Existing Inventory Total GLA
  • 36. TRENDS Tight lending will keep a check on speculative development An oversupply of retail space will slow speculative development Note sales of distressed properties by commercial banks
  • 37. LANDLORD MOVES TO SURVIVE Managing bank relationships and capital issues Managing co-tenancy issues Leasing as much space as possible – Co-tenancy!
  • 38. Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Realpoint WHAT WE NEED TO RECOVER IN RETAIL Jobs Jobs increase consumer confidence A confident consumer buys retail stuff
  • 39.
  • 40. RETAILER OVERVIEW David Conn CB Richard Ellis
  • 41. When Does Recovery Turn Into Expansion? Source: CBRE EA Summer 2010 Outlook Sum of 55 Retail Markets RECOVERY EXPANSION
  • 42. No Rent Expansion Until 2016 Sources: CBRE Econometric Advisors
  • 43. United States | Retail | Market Trends: Forecast Baseline Fall 2010 Outlook data as of 2Q-2010 Rent Expansion 2019
  • 44. US Retail Store Openings (Closures 2008-2010)
  • 45. July 2010 Comparable Stores Sales Report
  • 46. Tampa Bay Big Box Deals FAMILY DOLLAR DOLLAR GENERAL DOLLAR TREE hh gregg ALDI
  • 47.
  • 48.  
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. Kyle Burd Principal|Regional Vice President Eola Capital NAIOP Presentation September 8, 2010
  • 58. Westshore Availabilities SF Spaces Bldgs. 0-5K 512 146 5-10K 201 78 10-20K 117 54 20-50K 65 25 50-100K 22 5
  • 59.
  • 60. Making Deals – What Doesn’t Work? Over Selling
  • 61.
  • 62. Thank you to our Silver Sponsors
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 67.

Editor's Notes

  1. Updated: 2Q09 Sales Velocity by Property Type There were 12 apartment sales through the first quarter. There were 37 office sales through the first quarter. There were 48 multi-tenant retail sales through the first quarter. There were 26 single-tenant retail sales through the first quarter. There were 20 industrial sales though the end of the first quarter
  2. Updated: 2Q09 Sales Velocity by Property Type There were 12 apartment sales through the first quarter. There were 37 office sales through the first quarter. There were 48 multi-tenant retail sales through the first quarter. There were 26 single-tenant retail sales through the first quarter. There were 20 industrial sales though the end of the first quarter
  3. Page
  4. Tampa – Office Buildings All Classes 20%
  5. Choices: 5,000 SF # in Westshore 10,000 SF # in Westshore 20,000 SF # in Westshore 50,000 SF # in Westshore 100,000 SF # in Westshore
  6. Making Deals – What Works? Managing Expectations
  7. Making Deals – What Doesn’t Work? Over Selling
  8. Influences: Tenant Credit Ownership – Capital – Structure Debt – Loan Situation